Without realizing the many difficulties surrounding the attempt to beat the trifecta, many punters take a stab at it. Unfortunately, their ignorance to the problems makes their bets unreliable. So, before taking on the trifecta, ask yourself these questions:
- Are you able to see the order they will finish in? 1,2,3?
- Would you be able to overcome a 20% tote take?
It’s not uncommon for punters to consider the first question, but, they fail to put careful thought and consideration into the second. Ultimately, they are betting on the trifecta because they are hoping with all their might to cash their ticket in. The trifecta is there, so why not? Their failure to consider their payout can be a critical misstep.
Consider this rule, used by professional exotic betters: If you spot no value, don’t bet!
Basically, when you are placing a bet, the biggest payout comes from the thing no one else has any belief in. So, if you are betting on the four ruling favorites, you are wasting your time. You have voted the way the race is believed to be won, agreeing with the majority. Therefore, no profit will be gained in your winning ticket.
Don’t ever bet according to the favorite in third position!
Did you know, the public opinion of who will win is right 33% of the time? That’s a great number, however, when betting according to majority favorite, did you also know that the favored third position is only correctly anticipated 14% of the time?
Barry Meadow, a professional better says, “getting the favourite home 3rd will kill what would otherwise be a decent trifecta payoff. Forget that 14 per cent chance for a bad payoff and use the money to include some marginal horses who can help you, or keep the cash in your pocket”.
Expert rule of thumb: You need to banker (key) at least one horse in your trifecta bet. If you are unable, skip the bet!
It is always a better idea to banker a runner instead of wheeling or boxing. Basically, this could mean “one horse to win”, two different horses for first, or even betting one horse to win either first or second.
This should go without saying, some horses will only ever win second or third, never first.
NEVER bet on horses that everyone is betting on, or those that are just too SLOW!
Barry Meadow explains that he never bets if he can’t adequately remove some possibilities. He also never bets if he is unable to eliminate the favorite first or favorite second. This is due to the idea of needing to cut costs. Use logical analysis of the runners, eliminate when possible, and then fill out your forms. If you can’t cut costs through elimination, don’t bet.
To cut costs, you need to understand where your costs are coming from. So, take a look at this:
- Your cost is set up per ticket using this formula: number of your horses x remaining runners x difference in horse quantity = Bet total
- For example, you bet on 1 horse with 7 other runners, your total bet would be: 1x7x6=42 dollars.
- One horse with ten other runners would be ninety dollars: 1x10x9=90
Ultimately, if I don’t see a way for me to win second and third with a total of seven other runners, then I won’t bet. 42 dollars is a great bet on a trifecta, and it’s not something I like to go over, especially when I’m taking the long term approach.
You will need to win more than you bet over a 12 month period, meaning the more you bet, the more you need to win! You should attempt to keep your spending sums down to a relatively modest amount. Spend less, win more, that’s your goal.
Trifectas are not easy. Even when taking on smaller races the trifecta can be difficult to actually win and make good money on. However, when you do decide to place a bet, be sure profit can be won. Be sure risking the favorite is plausible, that you have good odds (4/1 during morning market), basically, be sure your horse has a chance. A good chance!
Using this tactic will help you to begin winning BIG instead of small time returns. Winning the trifecta takes time, common sense, and strategy, but it can be done!